Opta predict outcome of Leeds United hosting Bournemouth at Elland Road in the Premier League

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Leeds United face AFC Bournemouth this Saturday at Elland Road in their sixth Premier League match of 2025/26.

Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth are sat inside the top four and are unbeaten in their last four league games ahead of facing Leeds United at Elland Road. The Whites are unbeaten in West Yorkshire thus far, too.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1	LiverpoolLiverpool	5	5	0	0	11	5	6	15
2	ArsenalArsenal	5	3	1	1	10	2	8	10
3	TottenhamTottenham	5	3	1	1	10	3	7	10
4	BournemouthBournemouth	5	3	1	1	6	5	1	10
5	Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace	5	2	3	0	6	2	4	9
6	ChelseaChelsea	5	2	2	1	10	5	5	8
7	SunderlandSunderland	5	2	2	1	6	4	2	8

Daniel Farke has a mixed managerial record against Bournemouth, but this is the first time he has faced them as Leeds manager. It will also be the first time Leeds face a manager they were once interested in.

Bournemouth landed Iraola over Leeds, but this is a chance to continue making Elland Road a fortress and for the Leeds fans to show the Spaniard what he has missed out on in terms of atmosphere.

• READ MORE: Leeds United lead the way in impressive metric, Daniel Farke has adapted as he said he would

Opta predict the outcome of Leeds United vs Bournemouth

Jon Newsome would keep the Leeds centre-backs the same against Bournemouth but there are some selection headaches already in defensive areas, with Jayden Bogle’s condition currently unknown.

Our predicted XI for Leeds against Bournemouth highlights that Leeds’ head coach has some big decisions to make potentially, not least in goal.

The big question pertains to what Farke opts to do in goal with Lucas Perri and Karl Darlow. Leeds legend Dom Matteo would keep Darlow in over Perri vs Bournemouth.

Adam Pope would pick the same Leeds goalkeeper against Bournemouth and it’s clear that Leeds fans actually prefer Darlow to Perri so far.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
8	FulhamFulham	5	2	2	1	6	5	1	8
9	Manchester CityManchester City	5	2	1	2	9	5	4	7
10	EvertonEverton	5	2	1	2	6	5	1	7
11	Manchester UnitedManchester United	5	2	1	2	6	8	-2	7
12	LeedsLeeds	5	2	1	2	4	7	-3	7
13	NewcastleNewcastle	5	1	3	1	3	3	0	6
14	BrightonBrighton	5	1	2	2	6	8	-2	5
15	Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	5	9	-4	5
16	BurnleyBurnley	5	1	1	3	5	8	-3	4

Consistency and a settled backline will help Leeds to rack up clean sheets and points, having conceded zero, zero, one, one, and five in their league games thus far.

It will also be the foundation for making Elland Road that aforementioned fortress, having lost just once in the league to Burnley. That came a year and 10 days ago now, with Leeds drawing four and winning 18 of the 22 games since.

Despite that fact Opta believe Leeds are likely to drop points to Bournemouth this weekend. They are given a 69.8% chance of either a draw or win.

However, that is split 44.8% for a win and 25% for a draw. Leeds, therefore, are given a 30.2% chance of victory — irrespective of how impressive their form has been over the last year on their own patch.

• READ MORE: Karl Darlow or Lucas Perri? The stats pick which Leeds United goalkeeper starts against Bournemouth

Leeds’ record against AFC Bournemouth

Leeds have a mixed record against Bournemouth in recent times, but a strong historical record overall against the Cherries.

Leeds and Bournemouth have met 15 times in a professional game since 1939, with Leeds losing just twice and drawing just twice.

The games since Leeds did the double over Bournemouth in League One have been more mixed. However, Leeds won a thriller 4-3 in the last minute on their last visit to West Yorkshire.