Analysis

Karl Darlow or Lucas Perri? The stats pick which Leeds United goalkeeper starts against Bournemouth

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Leeds United manager Daniel Farke could have a decision to make over who to start in goal when Lucas Perri returns to fitness after another impressive display from stand-in Karl Darlow.

Lucas Perri joined Leeds from Lyon in the off-season, pushing the transfer-linked Illan Meslier further down the pecking order at Elland Road.

The Brazilian shot-stopper was handed the number one shirt for the new Premier League season and was picked for Leeds’ first three games by Daniel Farke.

However, an injury to Perri opened the door to Leeds’ number two goalkeeper, Karl Darlow, who did not put a foot wrong in the games against Fulham and Wolves.

Now, as Perri nears a return to Leeds’ first team, Farke has a decision to make over whether to stick with Darlow, as the stats show how solid he has been in goal for Leeds.

Leeds United goalkeeper Lucas Perri.
Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images

Karl Darlow vs Lucas Perri? The stats show Daniel Farke has a decision to make

Leeds paid around £16 million to bring Perri to Elland Road in the summer, and he quickly leapfrogged Darlow in the pecking order, after the former Newcastle man ended Leeds’ promotion season as Farke’s first choice.

However, according to the data from FBRef, Darlow has outperformed Perri in several key metrics since starting his first Premier League games in four years against Fulham. Although Perri has kept two clean sheets, the five goals he conceded against Arsenal have negatively impacted his statistical performance.

The shots that Perri has faced carry a combined post-shot expected goals (PSxG) total of three, including the penalty scored by Arsenal, whereas Darlow’s PSxG total is 2.2 from his two games.

MetricLucas PerriKarl Darlow
PL Appearances32
Goals Against52
Post Shot Expected Goals Against32.2
PSxG minus goals conceded (excl. Own Goals)-2+1.3
Long Pass Accuracy23.9%28.9%
Crosses Faced3549
Crosses Stopped %5.76.1

By conceding just twice in two games, Darlow has a positive balance of 1.2, as own goals are excluded. Perri, on the other hand, has conceded five in his three games, meaning he has conceded two more goals than expected from the shots he has faced.

Darlow is also outperforming Perri in several other categories. Darlow’s long passing is more accurate than Perri’s, connecting with 28.9% of his passes over 40 yards in length, compared to 23.9% for Perri.

Darlow also has a marginally better success rate at crosses than Perri, stopping 6.1% of the crosses he has faced compared to Perri’s 5.7%.

After his error against Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds fans were worried that Darlow would be a liability in the top flight. However, even if Perri reclaims his place immediately, Darlow has shown that Farke can rely on him with two solid displays.

Karl Darlow in action during Leeds United v AC Milan - Pre-Season Friendly
Photo by Charles McQuillan/Getty Images

Tony Dorigo praises Leeds United goalkeeper

Although Wolves ramped up on the Leeds goal in the second half, Darlow stood firm, pulling off a handful of saves and looking assured under the high ball.

Darlow could do nothing about the Wolves goal in the first half, and he earned the praise of Leeds legend Tony Dorigo at full-time. Speaking on the LUTV coverage of the game, Dorigo said: “The second half was a very different type of game.

“We still offered a few threats early on, but as Okafor started to tire, we got a bit deeper, and of course, Wolves just had to keep throwing everything in the box.

“We stood up to it really well. Darlow, brilliant. I thought he made some really good decisions. Great punches as well.”