Opta’s supercomputer has predicted the most likely outcome of Daniel Farke taking his Leeds United team to face Burnley at Turf Moor.
Leeds United are four points above their hosts, but the majority of neutrals are pleased to see the promoted trio dispelling some Premier League promotion myths this early on and making a better fist of survival.
That said, Sunderland are favoured to survive over Leeds and Burnley currently but three vital points could see that swing, with Saturday being the first meeting between the top two in the Championship last season.
They each achieved 100 points, but Leeds were better statistically than Burnley and the margin could have been much wider last term. None of that matters now, with both looking to consolidate their positions in the top flight.
Opta’s supercomputer provides verdict on Burnley vs Leeds
Scott Parker’s side have a win to their name this season, but even without Burnley, Sunderland and Leeds have been record-setters in terms of their points totals compared with other recently-promoted sides.
A number of Leeds fans are confident Burnley will be relegated and fill one of the bottom three places this season. But the importance of Saturday is clear for both teams, with Leeds able to go seven clear of their hosts after eight games with a win.
| Position | Team | Played MP | Won W | Drawn D | Lost L | For GF | Against GA | Diff GD | Points Pts |
| 15 |  LeedsLeeds | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 |  BrentfordBrentford | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 |  Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 |  BurnleyBurnley | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 |  West HamWest Ham | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 4 |
| 20 |  WolvesWolves | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
Burnley can cut the gap on Leeds to a point with a win, which is important for them to do and to not get cut adrift early on, much in the same way Southampton, Leicester City, and Ipswich Town were.
Recently, Opta outlined signs of Burnley and Leeds adapting to life in the Premier League. They have now provided their verdict on the likeliest outcomes of Saturday’s game.
Burnley’s one and only win came at Turf Moor, with Leeds winning one home and one away game. Last season, this fixture ended 0-0 in what was one of nine draws for Parker at home — where his side were unbeaten in 2024/25.
Opta suggest there is a 41.0% chance of a Burnley victory, and a 67.7% overall of either a win or a draw. Leeds taking maximum points is given less than a third of a chance. Leeds have been handed a 32.3% of a win.
Their supercomputer won’t take it into account, but Daniel Farke has a poor record against Burnley. It seems things are stacked up against his side already.
Leeds and Burnley’s recent clashes
Between 1975 and January 2012, Leeds went on a remarkable run against Burnley. A Boxing Day 2-2 draw in 1974 then prompted a run of 18 games where there were no draws.
Within that is the run until 2012, which saw Leeds win 12 and lose two games against the Clarets. The form since then has been far more mixed between the two sides.
- Nov 2012: Burnley 1-0 Leeds United
- Apr 2013: Leeds United 1-0 Burnley
- Sep 2013: Leeds United 1-2 Burnley
- Mar 2014: Burnley 2-1 Leeds United
- Aug 2015: Leeds United 1-1 Burnley
- Apr 2016: Burnley 1-0 Leeds United
- Sep 2017: Burnley 2-2 Leeds United (Leeds win on penalties)
- Dec 2020: Leeds United 1-0 Burnley
- May 2021: Burnley 0-4 Leeds United
- Aug 2021: Burnley 1-1 Leeds United
- Jan 2022: Leeds United 3-1 Burnley
- Sep 2024: Leeds United 0-1 Burnley
- Jan 2025: Burnley 0-0 Leeds United
Including the cup win in 2017, Leeds have won five and drawn three. That means Burnley have also won five in that time. It highlights how closely fought they have been since 2012.
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