Leeds United have sealed their spot in the Premier League and it’s nothing less than they deserve, as the stats make clear.
It was a three-horse race for the majority of the season but Sheffield United imploded at the worst (best) possible time to clear the way for Leeds United and Burnley to secure Premier League promotion.
Daniel Farke’s side recovered from their own wobble to win four games in a row for the first time this season, concluding with a sensational 6-0 smashing of Stoke City thanks to Joel Piroe’s four-goal haul.
Burnley then went on to defeat the Blades 2-1 at Turf Moor, ensuring both sides will finish in the top two and must now duke it out for the title in the two remaining fixtures.
| Position | Team | Played MP | Won W | Drawn D | Lost L | For GF | Against GA | Diff GD | Points Pts |
| 1 |  LeedsLeeds | 44 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 94 |
| 2 |  BurnleyBurnley | 44 | 26 | 16 | 2 | 61 | 15 | 46 | 94 |
Chris Wilder was magnanimous as he congratulated Leeds and the Clarets for their fantastic seasons, even if it was through gritted teeth.
But Leeds have enjoyed a fantastic campaign, with the stats proving they are more than deserving of promotion and even better at the back than Burnley.
Leeds United’s attacking might
Leeds have been an attacking force few sides have been able to reckon with this season, scoring 89 goals, at the time of writing, and are capable of pushing well into the 90s in the two remaining games.
No team has come close to matching their tally, with Middlesbrough the next highest scorers on 64, while Sheffield United have 60.
According to FBREF, Leeds are outperforming their xG for the season, which stands at 82.7, but only slightly. This shows their goal scoring is not an outlier and they really have been that great going forward.
Given Farke has the likes of Piroe, Manor Solomon, Willy Gnonto and Dan James at his disposal, it’s hardly surprising.
Leeds are better at the back than Burnley
In addition, Leeds have also been incredibly solid defensively throughout the entire season.
Burnley have obviously taken the limelight on that front as they have only conceded a ridiculous 15 goals.
Yet, Leeds have only let 29 strikes slip past them in 44 games. That’s also incredibly impressive and it’s only that high because of several costly Illan Meslier mistakes.
The record for the fewest goals conceded in a Championship season currently stands at 30. Leeds can still beat that themselves, even if Burnley will make a new, surely unassailable, record.
In fact, the xGA (expected goals against) numbers would actually suggest Leeds are better defensively than Burnley.
Leeds’ xGA is 29.1, practically the exact number of goals they have conceded, showing they are an extremely solid side that rarely even concedes good chances for opposing teams to score, let alone goals themselves.
Burnley, meanwhile, are massively outperforming their xGA, which stands at 36.8.
So while Burnley’s defensive record is sensational, it is also a statistical fluke and likely unsustainable.
Instead of being that strong at the back (or at least as strong as Leeds), they have relied upon the heroics of James Trafford to keep teams at bay and the ball out of the net.
That’s still completely valid, of course, a goalkeeper is just as important a member of the side as any other. But it shows their ridiculous defensive record is more down to him than the defending itself.
Should Burnley lose Trafford in the summer, then they will be in big trouble in the Premier League, whereas Leeds’ defensive success is much more systemic.
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