Leeds United’s hopes of remaining in the Premier League have taken a significant hit in recent weeks, as Daniel Farke now faces a herculean task to avoid the drop.
After nine games of the Premier League season, Leeds were six points and two places clear of the bottom three after their win over West Ham.
Just one month later, Daniel Farke had seen that cushion evolve in front of his eyes, after three consecutive defeats culminated in a damaging loss against Aston Villa.
Leeds’ run of five defeats in six games means Farke is now under serious pressure, as Leeds prepare for a daunting run of fixtures as they head into the Christmas period.
This has been reflected in Opta’s outlook on Leeds’ survival chances, with the Whites now tipped to suffer relegation back to the Championship at the end of the season.
Opta predict Leeds United will be relegated from the Premier League
After the win against West Ham at the end of October, Leeds were predicted to finish 16th in the Premier League with a final points total of 39 points.
However, since then, Opta have drastically reduced both Leeds’ predicted final points tally and their chances of achieving top-flight survival.
According to their latest prediction, Leeds now have a 60.97% chance of relegation, with a final predicted points total of 34.89.
| Team in 31/10 Prediction | Points in 31/10 Prediction | Position | Team in 25/11 Prediction | Points in 25/11 Prediction |
| Leeds | 39 | 16 | Nottm Forest | 43.08 |
| Burnley | 39 | 17 | West Ham | 38.5 |
| Nottm Forest | 37 | 18 | Leeds | 34.89 |
| West Ham | 33 | 19 | Burnley | 34.35 |
| Wolves | 29 | 20 | Wolves | 24.85 |
The combined impact of Leeds’ downturn in form and West Ham and Nottingham Forest’s improvement means the gap to 17th has opened up significantly, with the Hammers now predicted to avoid the drop on 38.5 points.
West Ham’s predicted final points total has jumped from 33 at the end of October, with Forest’s also increasing from 37 to 43.08.
- READ MORE: Leeds United fans urged to ‘stick together’ as Jayden Bogle and Ethan Ampadu react to Villa loss

Manchester City made overwhelming favourites for Leeds United clash
The latest Opta prediction matches the overriding sentiment inside Elland Road in the defeat against Villa, as the fans could almost see Leeds’ survival hopes melting away in the second half.
Things will not get any easier for Leeds in their next game against Manchester City, as Pep Guardiola’s side need a win to keep in touch in the title race.
Pundits and journalists pile the pressure on Daniel Farke…
Opta do not rate Leeds’ chances of pulling off a surprise victory particularly highly, with the home side given a 78.8% chance of claiming the win.
With just one away win to their name so far this season, against bottom side Wolves, Farke may be forced to rethink his approach to change Leeds’ fortunes on the road.
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