Daniel Farke faces several key selection decisions when Premier League action returns as Leeds United face a crucial game against Burnley.
Leeds entered the international break on a disappointing note, slipping to a home defeat against Tottenham, to give Daniel Farke food for thought over changes to his side.
Pascal Struijk received some criticism for his performance, as he was exploited by long balls over the top, prompting calls for new signing Jaka Bijol to be given his Premier League debut.
Goalkeeper Karl Darlow was also criticised for his role in Tottenham’s goals, particularly their first, as he failed to react to a deflection off Struijk.
Summer signing Lucas Perri is expected to be fit for the game against Scott Parker’s Burnley, having recovered from injury. However, the stats from Burnley’s season to date suggest that Farke should stick with Darlow for what could be a vitally important game.
Daniel Farke should retain faith with Karl Darlow for Burnley clash
Burnley have had a slower start to the season, currently sitting 18th in the table, with four points from their opening seven games.
However, Parker’s side have matched Leeds in front of goal in that period, scoring seven goals, but conceding 15 to Leeds’ 11.
Whilst Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been guilty of missing several good chances for Leeds, the data from FBRef shows that Burnley, by contrast, have been incredibly efficient in front of goal.
| Burnley – PL Shooting Stats | Total | PL Rank |
| Goals | 7 | =10th |
| Total Shots | 55 | 19th |
| Total Shots on Target | 18 | 20th |
| Goals per Shot | 0.13 | 5th |
| Goals per Shot on Target | 0.39 | 6th |
| Expected Goals | 4.9 | 20th |
| Goals minus Expected Goals | +2.1 | 3rd |
Heading into their eighth game of the season, Burnley rank 19th in the Premier League for the total number of shots and 20th for total shots on target. However, they rank fifth for the number of goals per shot and sixth for the number of goals per shot on target.
Burnley are also over-performing on their expected goals by +2.1, with seven goals for a total xg of 4.9, the joint third-biggest overperformance in the competition. By contrast, Leeds are under-performing by -0.9, ranking them joint 12th.
As a result, Leeds need a goalkeeper who is ready to stop the few chances that Burnley create. Having enjoyed a run of games for Leeds and played twice for Wales in the international break, Darlow will be ready to go, while Perri may need some time to get back up to full match fitness.
New Leeds United signing Lucas Perri is being outperformed
Perri has not had much opportunity to show what he can do for Leeds to date, after picking up an injury three games into the Premier League season.
Leeds’ heavy defeat against Arsenal skews Perri’s statistical performance to an extent, however, one key metric from FBRef shows that Darlow has outperformed him to date.
Post-shot expected goal measures how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot, with a higher number indicating a more difficult shot to stop.
| Metric | Karl Darlow | Lucas Perri |
| Games Played | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 5 |
| Post Shot Expected Goals Against (PSxG) | 3.9 | 3.0 |
| PSxG + / – | -1.1 | -2.0 |
| PSxG + / – per 90 | -0.27 | -0.66 |
Although both goalkeepers have a negative balance overall, Darlow is performing slightly better, allowing -1.1 goals from the shots he faced against Perri’s tally of -2.0.
Darlow is also performing better when this figure is averaged over 90 minutes, with a ratio of -0.27 per 90 to Perri’s -0.66 per 90, suggesting that Darlow is the man to select in a game that could feature few chances.
Receive a digest of our best Leeds content each week direct to your mailbox
