With only 13 Championship fixtures remaining, Leeds United are hurtling towards that time in every season when the so-called ‘super computer’ is dusted off, re-booted rolled out.
Now, fans of the current league leaders know better than anyone that data-fuelled predictions count for little in a sport often decided by such intangibles as confidence, pressure and other factors from refereeing blunders to bad pitches to individual mistakes.
Leeds United looked certain to secure promotion under Marcelo Bielsa in 2019 but collapsed at home to Derby County in the play-off semi-finals. Last season, Daniel Farke’s team become only the second in Championship history to reach the 90-point marker and still fall short.
Southampton, this time, would triumph at Wembley.
Flash forward nine months, and while Leeds are at the front of the pack with the finishing line creeping into view over the horizon, there are still plenty of hurdles remaining and the prospect of yet another photo finish.
Substitutes Joe Rothwell and Pascal Struijk combined in stunning style as Leeds came from behind to beat Sunderland in the 95th minute on Monday night.
And while such a fightback had a real ‘Hallmark of Champions’ sort of feel about it – Daniel Farke stomping onto the pitch in a manner reminiscent of old adversary Sir Alex Ferguson in 1993 or Jurgen Klopp at Goodison Park – lose away at Sheffield United next week and Leeds will slip behind the Blades into second-place.
Burnley are still plugging away in third, meanwhile.
Leeds United tipped for promotion by Championship number-crunchers
Leeds, for about the umpteenth time over the last half-decade or so, appear to be in a three-horse race from which only two can claim the prize of automatic promotion.
So though the numbers look good – ‘extraordinary’ in fact, to quote the LUFC Data stats page – absolutely nobody will be tattooing ‘Leeds United, Championship champions 2025’ on their flesh until the mathematicians say so.
In truth, Leeds had already started to falter around this time back in 2019 under Marcelo Bielsa. They would go onto lose half of their final 20 Championship matches.
A run of one win in their last six last term, meanwhile, is a brutal reminder of how dramatically the wheels can still fall off the wagon. Leeds were victorious in nine straight games between January and the end of February in 2024 but still slipped up in the business end.
Almost exactly a year on, however, it is impossible to ignore the momentum building around a club gorging on the glory of a last-minute decider against one of their promotion rivals.
“I was always convinced that we would have the chance to score and win the game,” the manager beamed Daniel Farke’s inspired substitutions ensured lightning would ‘Struijk’ twice.
“It was a very tight game between two good teams. [Sunderland] are a strong team and are really good at defending. They are really dangerous on the counter attack.
“But in the end, I don’t think there was a doubt that it was a well deserved in. We dominated them, more or less, from the first second. We had nearly 70 per cent possession, 21 shots to six shots and ten to zero corners.
“Football is sometimes like this and they scored a goal out of one situation. We missed so many situations where we were perhaps not tidy in the box. Sometimes you need set-pieces to win the game.
“It was a tight win and the last second wins are the most emotional wins. But, nevertheless, it was a deserved win. They were good deliveries from Joe Rothwell and it was the right decision to bring them [the substitutes] on the pitch.”
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