Leeds United’s promotion blueprint mapped out by remarkable stat

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Leeds United return to Championship action after a rare free midweek on Saturday when they host Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth at Elland Road.

Daniel Farke’s side will begin the weekend third in the Championship table and will be hoping to gatecrash the top two before the November international break rolls around following next weekend’s fixtures.

A total of nine points are up for grabs between now and then, with Leeds heading to face Millwall on Wednesday night, before struggling QPR visit Elland Road next weekend.

All three are matches which a bona fide promotion contender should circle as potential wins and one key statistic provides Leeds a route to victory.

Leeds United’s record when scoring first

One notable stat that appears to determine Leeds’ fate is their record when scoring first.

Appearing on The Square Ball podcast, Opta statistician Jonny Cooper was armed with the numbers for what happens when the Whites break the deadlock.

Leeds are currently 59 Championship games unbeaten when they net first, a run which stretches back to the playoff semi-final defeat to Derby Country at the end of Marcelo Bielsa’s first season in 2018/19.

The club have won 53 of these games and drawn the other six, meaning Leeds have won just shy of 90 per cent of the games when they open the scoring over the past five years in the second tier.

That record is even better if you look at the last 20 games, as Leeds have won 19 times, a 95 per cent success rate.

The only game in these past 20 where Leeds have failed to win after netting the opener was the first match of the current season, when Pascal Struijk kicked the season off with a tenth-minute penalty in a match which ended 3-3.

What this means for Plymouth clash

Saturday’s opponents Plymouth have the second-worst defensive record in the Championship, with Rooney’s side having shipped in 22 goals.

The Pilgrims have also conceded the first goal nine times in their 12 league matches so far, so Leeds will hope to make it ten on Saturday afternoon.

Farke will no doubt warn of complacency for this clash of third-vs-21st and will be able to point to Plymouth’s best result of the season, when they came from 1-0 down to beat leaders Sunderland back in September.