Leeds United to win league by 10 points as EFL expert highlights ‘ground-breaking’ statistic

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If there is an opposite term for nominative determinism, then it could certainly be applied to Daniel Farke’s promotion-chasing Leeds United.

Because, for Leeds, hanging onto leads is becoming quite an issue.

The Yorkshire giants have thrown away four points in 2025 alone. Farke was left bemoaning Leeds’ late switch-off against Blackburn Rovers on New Years’ Day and, as Illian Meslier juggled the ball like a whiskey-fuelled clown with his arm in a sling on Humberside, Hull City turned a 3-1 deficit into a six-goal thriller.

Yet, confidence remains – in the hearts of those EFL experts – that it will be Leeds United sitting at the top of the Football League tree when May rolls around.

And while only four points separate Farke’s team from Sunderland right now – with Burnley and Sheffield United sandwiched in between – George Elek is not expecting a photo finish, but rather a Leeds side streaking across the line.

EFL experts explain why Leeds United will win the Championship

“I think Leeds United win the league by a substantial amount of points,” Elek argues. “It wouldn’t surprise me if it was 10 points despite they fact they are only one point clear.

“A few reasons for that; I know there will be people out there saying ‘this is what they do, they throw away leads’ but, if they do win those two [against Blackburn and Hull], they are five points clear. Things can change very quickly and these results have skewed what the league table looks like.

“In my mind, Leeds [winning the league] by ten, or Leeds by eight or six, isn’t necessarily because I expect Leeds to massively kick on. But, if you comb through their results, it does feel like a lot of the games they haven’t won have been their own undoing and I would expect that to right itself a little bit.

“If you look through Sheffield United, Burnley and Sunderland, you can make pretty strong cases as to why their points-per-game might regress a little bit.

“And if thats the case, if Leeds carry on in their performance level – which based on every metric apart from points they are quite far clear of everyone else in terms of underlying numbers, how they dominate games, and the gap between themselves and the opposition when they do win games – my guess is that if Leeds continue at the rate they are going they win the league and pretty comfortably.

“If they can stop shooting themselves in the foot, there could be quite a distance between themselves and the rest.”

Leeds backed to solve Illan Meslier problem as Karl Darlow awaits chance

There is, of course, the goalkeeper situation to consider. Daniel Farke continues to back Illan Meslier publicly – this is Leeds United, he quipped, not ‘Leeds Divided’ – but the under-fire Frenchman surely cannot afford more mistakes like the ones he committed against Sunderland and Hull.

Not with an experienced Championship glovesman waiting in the wings. Farke praised Karl Darlow as Leeds beat Harrogate in the FA Cup on Saturday, and Elek’s co-host Ali Maxwell would not be surprised to see the 34-year-old keep his place when Sheffield Wednesday travel to Elland Road on Sunday.

Maxwell also argues that most teams would bite your hand off for the sort of issue Leeds are facing. An individual problem, he points out, is far more fixable than a collective one.

“I can’t quite believe this is true but, up to this point, they have faced less than two shots on target per game,” Maxwell argues. “It is ground-breaking numbers and that is within the context of Burnley’s goals conceded column looking superior.

“From here until the end of the season, who do I think will concede fewer goals, I probably believe in Leeds’ defence more than Burnley which might sound crazy.

“The Meslier situation isn’t great. We both believe something needs to change, whether Meslier gets dropped for Karl Darlow or whether they look to sign a goalkeeper.

“But that issue gets discussed as if other teams don’t have weaknesses. An individual issue like this compared to something on a team level, like chance creation being low or a poor defence, is a lot easier to solve.”