As Leeds United know pretty well following three seasons back in the Premier League recently, an inability to take your chances can prove particularly damaging.
In the Championship, Daniel Farke’s table-toppers usually have the luxury of missing a few opportunities and still finding themselves taking home the three points.
See that recent 2-0 win at Coventry City, for instance. Leeds created about as many chances as they did a few days prior – the 7-0 hammering of Cardiff their biggest Elland Road triumph in over 50 years – and missed all but two of them.
Not that it mattered. While Illan Meslier pulled off a ‘world-class’ save to stop Coventry halving the deficit, Leeds United cruised to yet another victory despite a rare off day in the final third.
It’s safe to say the Yorkshire giants will not be able to enjoy the same luxuries should they return to the Premier League. Therefore, any striker who arrives at Elland Road over the summer to boost Farke’s attacking options will be relied upon to stick away the comparatively fewer chances that are likely to come their way once back in the big time.
Wilson Isidor and Josh Sargent are top strikers at Championship level. Whether their influence in the second-tier can be replicated in the division above, remains to be seen.
Leeds have been linked with Tammy Abraham too. But while the AC Milan frontman does have plenty of top-level experience under his belt following his time at Chelsea, the England international’s performances in a Rossoneri jersey do not exactly paint the picture of a centre-forward ruthless enough to be relied upon against more high-quality defences.
Tammy Abraham has struggled at AC Milan amid Leeds United links
“Leeds are very much leaning on their Premier League list when it comes to summer targets,” football correspondent Graeme Bailey tells Leeds United News.
“It is not about being over-confident, but realistic. And they know if they want to stay up next season they have to get their plans in place as early as possible.
“They already know they need a striker and they are doing their work on options, and are being offered players too. One player emerging on their radar is Tammy Abraham. I’m told he is ready to return to the Premier League this summer.”
On paper, a striker with Abraham’s experience and reputation feels like a bit of a coup. Particularly for a newly-promoted outfit. Yet, at a time where he really should be entering his prime at the age of 27, the former Aston Villa poacher has arguably never looked more unconvincing.
His tally of two Serie A goals from 21 appearances tells a tale. But, even more worryingly, those two goals have come from an ‘expected goals’ tally of six.
In fact, according to Understat, Abraham has only ever exceeded his XG in a league season once, with Roma in 2023/24.
Leeds will need to be ruthless in the Premier League
“I would have liked to help my team get the three points,” Abraham sighed after January’s 1-1 draw with Cagliari, missing two glorious chances to secure a big win for Sergio Conceicao’s side.
“But today was not my night.”
You could argue that this season has not been Abraham’s season.
It hasn’t all been bad, though. He scored twice in the Champions League and hit a brace against parent club Roma in the Coppa Italia a couple of weeks back.
Yet, with taking chances or missing chances often the deciding factor between survival and relegation in the Premier League – Leeds will be up against far more miserly backlines than they are used to in the Championship – Abraham’s current record of two goals from an XG of six does not make for particularly compelling reading.
“Abraham, apart from his first year at Roma where he was quite prolific, is the identikit of someone who plays well but doesn’t score,” reporter Paolo Condo said after that Cagliari calamity.
“I have in mind the song by [Italian singer] Massimo Ranieri; ‘Perdere l’amore’.”
Or, translated into English, losing the love.
“Here,” Condo adds, “It is ‘Perdere il gol’.
You probably don’t need us to translate that one…
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